Arkansas HVACR NewsMagazine September 2024

HVACR NewsMagazine September 2024

One way to assess the potential “economic burden” of an aging population on the working-age population is through old-age dependency ratios: the ratio of the population age 65 and older to the population ages 15-64. Higher old-age dependency ratios indicate a greater number of people 65 and older who, in theory, need to be supported economically by the working-age population. Table 1 shows the old-age dependency ratios by race and Hispanic origin in 2022, as well as the projected dependency ratios in 2060 for the three alternative immigration scenarios. The main series, considered the most likely immigration scenario, assumes that future international immigration trends will mirror the latest trends. • The high immigration scenario assumes a 50% increase in international immigration. • The low immigration scenario assumes a roughly 50% decrease in international immigration. • The zero immigration scenario assumes no international immigration and is considered a baseline for evaluating the overall contribution of immigration to population change. The three immigration scenarios are •

One might take this information as a justification for immigration. Of course, most of us would perfer LEGAL immigration; but we so need immigration. Those in the construction industry know that everything would come to a screeching halt if you sent all immigrants to their countries of origion. You ’d also have to give up eating chicken. Ever been by a processing plant at shift change? But again, our intent by including this information is not to influence anyone on the subject of immigration. It is about seeing that the old-age dependency ratios are scary and everyone should take retirement seriously by enrolling in or having a solid safe retirement program. To illustrate the point lets take the most at risk population and the most likely immigration pattern — that is white folks and immigration that mirrors the latest trend. If you prefer, yes let ’s prefer , and use the Zero immigration projection. By 2060, 55.2% of the white, non- hispanic population will be 65 or older. How can so few support so many. Oh, that ’s right, we have Social Security, that will support the old folks. You must be dreaming. When Social Security was enacted in 1935, Retirement age was 65